• Jesse Ledbetter

The long, slow recovery from 2008

Updated: Feb 3, 2021

In my analysis of plans in Chesterfield County that were built in the early 2000's I have kept running into the same "issue:" Homes that transferred in 2007-early 2008 appraising for less/or the same amount in 2020 than at that time. It triggered the thought "certainly the housing market is higher than pre-2008... we 'recovered' years ago!" It happened so often that I began running long term analysis, and a similar graph kept emerging.


This graph could be a lot of plans in the region, but it happens to be Qualla Farms. The same graph emerges in higher-end plans, just move the shape upward. It tells a pretty clear story, that may have some hidden surprises.

  1. We've only in 2020 finally "recovered" to pre-financial crisis home value levels.

  2. Many of the homes that are now setting the top end of the market have been upgraded from their original state (granite instead of laminate, hardwood instead of carpet). This would imply that we may still be below pre crisis levels when adjusted for quality.

  3. The real estate market has had a strong run for the last 8 years, and not nearly as unhealthy of a year over year increase as seen in 2004-2008.

  4. The most recent data shows a sharp increase in the rate of appreciation. This could last for a number of years, however, it is also very likely to lead to a correction to/below the mean growth rate if it goes on for too long without strong wage growth to sustain it.

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