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  • Writer's pictureJesse Ledbetter

"Housing Recession," what does that mean?

A recession is a poorly defined term, but in terms of GDP is can mean 2 consecutive quarters of decline OR a 1.5% decline in GDP OR a decline in 75% of industries... or a number of other things.

In truth, its a made-up word, and tacking "housing" onto the front of it is even more made up. The United States is recovering from one of the most overheated housing markets in 50 years, and doing so by the rate of increase declining and sometimes inverting. NO ONE is claiming that the last 6 months have seen housing price declines (one definition of recession).

Most US recessions have been led by housing declines, and housing declines have happened outside of recessions. The two are not direct correlaries. We are very likely to see a recession in the next 18 months and a housing correction in that same time nationwide, but the difference between a correction/recession and a depression/"great recession" is fear. Irrational fear of missing out lead us to an overheated market in 2020-2022 - maybe sit back and grab a cup of tea instead of watching the news.

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