Henrico data at the end of 2022 appears relatively strong in comparison to the rest of the Richmond metro market. A seasonal decline in Q3-4 in median home values is to be expected, and the contraction at the end of 2022 is in line with the last 5 years of data.
However, the Sale to List price ratio shows why the market may "feel" much weaker. For the previous 5 quarters the sale-to-list ratio averaged 105%, so the decline to merely 101% in the last two quarters of 2022 can feel like a sudden deceleration, as sellers expect 4% more from their offers if they haven't acclimated to this new market that has emerged. Pair this with an increase from 5.2 days on market to 7 days on market (34.6% longer!) and it can feel like the sky is falling.
Calm down Chicken Little, the market is getting back to pre-pandemic normal.
Again, like most of the area, with interest rates nearly 100% higher than one year ago, the flight to affordable areas is seen in the data, with higher value areas dragging on the data, but affordable areas remaining stronger.