As 2021 draws to a close, we take a moment to look at the market data that drove real estate markets. First a macro look at Richmond. When taken into consideration with the past 10 years, the moving average of sale price for 2021 actually looks in line with previous years - however, the Days on Market graph tells the real story. A desperate shortage of homes in the area drove prices higher and caused a general sense of the market being "wild!"
While the Fan and Museum District have historically seen higher sales prices (and continue to) areas east and south east of the city saw a stronger price increase in the last few years.
Finally, when we look at the Year over Year trends we see the historic rise in home prices in the fall and winter months of 2020-2021 followed by a cooling in prices more recently. The two consecutive quarter rise in home values is only eclipsed by Q3-4 of 2012 which saw increases of 39.1% and 41.7% consecutively (this reflects analysis of data in the CVR MLS back to 2002). Additionally, Richmond has had positive quarterly returns for the past 11 quarters. This is tied for second for the longest run of positive quarters since 2002 (Q1 2003 - Q3 of 2008 being the longest; and being tied with Q2 2016-Q4 2018).
If the current trend of 2022 continues, we will establish 12 quarters of positive YOY growth. So far the data indicates a 9.5% increase in Richmond home prices for the 12/1/2021-02/28/2022 quarter. Historically, this quarter has seen an average increase in home values of 6.4%. The market has outpaced the 20 year average 2 out of the 3 past quarters.
Clarification: Why do you use 12/1 as the start of your quarter instead of 1/1?
This is due to the fact that over the last 20 years in the data December has performed more in line with January and February. When graphing this data a higher correlation of "seasonality" can be seen in the data when grouping these months.