As 2021 draws to a close, we take a moment to look at the market data that drove real estate markets. First a macro look at Hopewell. When taken into consideration with the past 10 years, the moving average of sale price for 2020 and 2021 shows a marked increase. A pairing of high levels of renovation and historically low supply of homes has created a recipe for rapid price increases.
As seen below, the markets for the different service areas were in near lockstep prior to the financial crisis, and that trend is re-emerging long after the recovery.
Finally, when we look at the Year over Year trends we see the historic rise in home prices that has stretched for a record 8 quarters (second in length to the pre financial crisis 18 quarter record). The area has seen quarterly increase to the median sales price above 10% 6 out of the last 7 quarters.
If the current trend of 2022 continues, we will establish 9 quarters of positive YOY growth. So far the data indicates a 13.8% increase in Hopewell home prices for the 12/1/2021-02/28/2022 quarter. Historically, this quarter has seen an average increase in home values of 6.9%. The market has outpaced the 20 year average 3 out of the 3 past quarters.
Clarification: Why do you use 12/1 as the start of Q1 instead of 1/1?
This is due to the fact that over the last 20 years in the data December has performed more in line with January and February. When graphing this data a higher correlation of "seasonality" can be seen in the data when grouping these months.