2021 In Review: Henrico
As 2021 draws to a close, we take a moment to look at the market data that drove real estate markets. First a macro look at Henrico. When taken into consideration with the past 10 years, the moving average of sale price for 2021 actually looks in line with previous years - however, the Days on Market graph tells the real story. A desperate shortage of homes in the area drove prices higher and caused a general sense of the market being "wild!"
The area serviced by Deep Run High school has historically seen the highest median sales prices, and in the last 2 years the distance between this and other areas has only increased.
Finally, when we look at the Year over Year trends we see the historic rise in home prices that has stretched for a record 25 quarters. The five most recent quarters above 10% YoY growth is only eclipsed by 8 quarters from Q4 2004 - Q3 2006.
If the current trend of 2022 continues, we will establish 26 quarters of positive YOY growth. So far the data indicates a 2.0% increase in Henrico home prices for the 12/1/2021-02/28/2022 quarter. Historically, this quarter has seen an average increase in home values of 4.5%. The market has outpaced the 20 year average 3 out of the 3 past quarters.
Clarification: Why do you use 12/1 as the start of Q1 instead of 1/1?
This is due to the fact that over the last 20 years in the data December has performed more in line with January and February. When graphing this data a higher correlation of "seasonality" can be seen in the data when grouping these months.