• Jesse Ledbetter

2021 in Review: Goochland

As 2021 draws to a close, we take a moment to look at the market data that drove real estate markets. First a macro look at Henrico. When taken into consideration with the past 10 years, the moving average of sale price for 2021 actually looks in line with previous years - however, the Days on Market graph tells the real story. A desperate shortage of homes in the area drove prices higher and caused a general sense of the market being "wild!"


Unsurprisingly, market areas closer to the city and amenities have a higher marketability. This is consistent with the greater levels of new construction in these areas.

Finally, when we look at the Year over Year trends we see that given the lower number of sales in the area, this yields higher variability even in YoY trends. Goochland's longest run up of consistent YoY increases were the 17 quarters prior to the financial collapse. Since that time the longest run was 5 quarters from Q1 2015-Q1 2016.

So far the data indicates a 14.3% increase in Goochland home prices for the 12/1/2021-02/28/2022 quarter. Historically, this quarter has seen an average increase in home values of 3.8%. The market has outpaced the 20 year average 2 out of the 3 past quarters.



Clarification: Why do you use 12/1 as the start of Q1 instead of 1/1?


This is due to the fact that over the last 20 years in the data December has performed more in line with January and February. When graphing this data a higher correlation of "seasonality" can be seen in the data when grouping these months.

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