2021 in Review: Chesterfield

As 2021 draws to a close, we take a moment to look at the market data that drove real estate markets. First a macro look at Chesterfield. When taken into consideration with the past 10 years, the moving average of sale price for 2020 and 2021 shows a marked increase. A pairing of new construction and historically low supply of home has created a recipe for rapid price increases.

The areas serviced by Midlothian and Cosby High school have historically seen the highest median sales prices, and in the last 2 years James River High has broken away to increasingly join this trend.

The remaining 4 high school areas have increased in relatively similar degrees, showing that the sharp increase in Chesterfield is localized to the northwest portion.

Finally, when we look at the Year over Year trends we see the historic rise in home prices that has stretched for a record 12 quarters (second in length to the early 2000's and post-collapse recovery. The four most recent quarters above 10% YoY growth is only eclipsed by 7 quarters from Q4 2004 - Q2 2006.

If the current trend of 2022 continues, we will establish 13 quarters of positive YOY growth. So far the data indicates a 1.2% increase in Chesterfield home prices for the 12/1/2021-02/28/2022 quarter. Historically, this quarter has seen an average increase in home values of 4.4%. The market has outpaced the 20 year average 3 out of the 3 past quarters.

Clarification: Why do you use 12/1 as the start of Q1 instead of 1/1?

This is due to the fact that over the last 20 years in the data December has performed more in line with January and February. When graphing this data a higher correlation of "seasonality" can be seen in the data when grouping these months.