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  • Writer's pictureJesse Ledbetter

My Crystal Ball - Broken, or not?

I'm writing this blog on February 10th, 2022, and scheduling it to drop in early summer. It will be my attempt to forecast based on my 8 recent blogs regarding the 2021 market and what trends I see at this time. This summer, we'll see how well I did.

Disclaimer: My forecast here assumes that tensions with Russia/China/et al remain stable and that the markets do not react to a major world conflict. I'm an appraiser... not a geopolitical expert.

Marketing time/Inventory - Historically low. I expect to see median marketing times of under one week for typical properties.

Price appreciation - while many national data firms are predicting a slower 2022 than 2021, I fear that we may see a year more similar (I say fear because the price appreciation of 2020 and 2021 has outpaced inflation by 200-400% which is not sustainable for long periods of time and only increases the possibility of more violent corrections in the future). My current annual percent of increase prediction for the greater Metro Richmond area is 8-10%.

New Construction - expect to see new developments announced as demand remains high, especially near I-95 and I-64. The slight pullback in cost increase in late 2021 may spawn a rush that will send demand higher in 2022.

Renovation Market- "Flippers" have complained of tightening margins for the last two years. I expect that this trend will continue to compel some to expand their ventures into Hopewell and Petersburg where higher margins are still available but where risk is also higher.

So, in a sentence: Buckle up, I believe we're in for another 2021. We'll see how cracked my crystal ball is in a few months. I hope to comment on my own page with my "hits and misses," if I see my own post. If I miss it, and you'd like my thoughts, drop me a comment and I'll be sure to reply.

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1 Comment

Jesse Ledbetter
Jesse Ledbetter
Jun 26, 2022

Jesse here. I hadn’t looked at this post since I wrote it, and the Russia-Ukraine portion looks like a distant memory at this point. While the overall market has cooled this spring, 8-10% annually for the region is still within the realm of reason (which begs the question what would have happened if Russia had not started a war with its peaceful neighbor). Marketing times of under a week are the norm. The rate changes of the last two weeks have certainly changes the market, as agents and loan officers report shrinking demand. New construction was strong for the first half of the year - but will be an area to watch closely for the second half. Flippers continue to…

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